The Israeli military claims it assassinated Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief and de facto leader, and Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij militia, in airstrikes on March 17, 2026. Iran confirmed Larijani’s death the next day, along with his son Morteza Larijani and aide Alireza Bayat. The attacks followed weeks of escalating conflict since the U.S. and Israel launched a full-scale war on Iran on February 28, 2026.
Larijani was not just a security chief but a key figure in Iran’s potential off-ramps. As an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a negotiator in U.S.-Iran talks, he represented a pragmatic faction willing to engage with the West. Trita Parsi, an Iranian American analyst, argues that Israel’s elimination of Larijani—who could have mediated with Trump—extends the war by removing “any potential off-ramps.” This aligns with Israel’s 20-year strategy, as Parsi notes, to “prolong the war as long as the U.S. is in it.”
The conflict has since spiraled. By March 18, Iran had retaliated with attacks on Israeli civilian areas and U.S. assets in the Gulf, including striking the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and a drone attack near an Australian airbase. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have destroyed 100 “security targets” in Israel, killing two in Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, U.S. forces bombed Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint.
Sources disagree on framing but agree on trajectory. Democracy Now! (far-left) emphasizes Israel’s intent to “prolong the war” by killing diplomacy-focused figures, while The Free Beacon (far-right) celebrates the “elimination” of a “de facto leader” who might have stabilized Iran. Neutral outlets like Reuters and CNBC document attacks on Iranian financial infrastructure, including a cyberattack on Sepah Bank, which could spark domestic unrest.
The assassination weakens Iran’s power structure, creating a vacuum likely to be filled by hardliners. Amir Hatami, Iran’s army chief, vowed “decisive retaliation,” signaling no immediate ceasefire. The death of Larijani and Soleimani—both central to Iran’s security apparatus—undermines the leadership’s cohesion, favoring factions that see war as a path to legitimacy.
Coverage misses the lived experience of Iranian civilians, who face daily missile threats and banking sector collapse. It also overlooks how this war reshapes the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states may exploit the crisis for geopolitical gain.
The next phase hinges on three triggers: 1) Whether Trump, facing domestic pressure, escalates the war further; 2) Whether Iran’s hardliners seize total control, rejecting dialogue; and 3) How global oil markets react to continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.