About 90 ships, including 16 million barrels of Iranian oil, have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on March 2. Despite Iran’s declared closure of the chokepoint in February, tankers tied to China, India, and Pakistan slipped past Iranian blockades and Western insurance prohibitions. Satellite imagery from Maritime and trade data platforms confirms that vessels like the Liberia-flagged Shenlong Suezmax, ferrying Saudi crude to Mumbai, now use “dark transits” to evade U.S. sanctions. This clandestine trade exposes a fatal flaw in Washington’s strategy to starve Iran’s war effort: while the U.S. blocks financial channels, Tehran is weaponizing shipping lanes to bypass Western control.
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles 18 million barrels of oil daily, has seen traffic shrink by 95% due to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. Analysts like Kpler’s Ana Subasic note that “resilience” in exports relies on non-Western countries trading in a shadow economy. India’s state banks, shielded from U.S. penalties by diplomatic negotiations, now dominate purchases, buying 63% of Iran’s oil exports last month. Meanwhile, maritime intelligence firm Windward reports that daily transits via Iranian territorial waters have doubled, with ships rerouting through uncharted channels.
Sources diverge on the scale of this covert trade. While AP confirms 90 ships since March 1, Al Jazeera’s Windward data shows only eight tracked transits on March 11, likely due to inconsistent AIS tracking. Yet both agree that China remains the largest buyer, using state-owned insurers and cash to circumvent the U.S.-linked global finance system.
Iran’s strategy exploits a decade of preparation: its shadow fleet of sanctions-proof tankers, developed under Obama-era pressure, is now the bedrock of its war economy. By forcing a “no-coverage” insurance noose on Western ships, Tehran has inverted the rules. Ships flying Chinese or Indian flags—unburdened by U.S. pressure—now act as proxies in Iran’s energy war, turning third-party nations into de facto logistical allies.
What’s missing from the coverage is the role of private equity and non-state actors. Hedge funds in Dubai, for instance, may be financing tankers to profit from oil price volatility. Similarly, the human cost of strafed crews on unmarked vessels remains unreported. A Liberian captain interviewed anonymously by AFP described being ordered off a $400 million cargo in the Gulf of Oman—only to return later under an Indian flag.
Washington’s next target is the EU’s stance on Iranian crude. With NATO allies resisting Trump’s demands for a maritime coalition, Biden’s successor may pivot to sanctioning Chinese- and Indian-backed banks. Yet for every vessel intercepted off the Strait, two more slip through in the dead of night—a war that cannot be won with warships alone.